Monday, July 5, 2010

No matter how much stimulus President Obama and the Democrats want to throw at it, we've hit a brick wall on Main Street. There's no real growth in quality jobs; a few hundred thousand Census Workers, government largess mostly, don't count for much. Wages aren't increasing. The scourge of price inflation is just over the eastern horizon, set to rise in all it's blazing fiery glory within a few quarters. Our national debt has equaled our GDP; our international stature under Obama's watch isn't the rosy optimistic nirvana pictured when rapt Leftists and easily-swayed independents put the little man in power. When President Bush's tax cuts expire next year, raising even further the cost of doing business in America, punishing those who could provide jobs given the correct incentives, there's going to be more downward pressure on 'the average Joe' because, we all know crap rolls downhill, gathering mass as it accumulates speed.

The real truth isn't found in the New York Times. Most American news outlets, worried that they are, aren't telling the whole story. It's a shame when the best news analysis comes from overseas. This article from the Telegraph.co.uk doesn't pull punches...
With the US trapped in depression, this really is starting to feel like 1932
The US workforce shrank by 652,000 in June, one of the sharpest contractions ever. The rate of hourly earnings fell 0.1pc. Wages are flirting with deflation.

"The economy is still in the gravitational pull of the Great Recession," said Robert Reich, former US labour secretary. "All the booster rockets for getting us beyond it are failing."

"Home sales are down. Retail sales are down. Factory orders in May suffered their biggest tumble since March of last year. So what are we doing about it? Less than nothing," he said.

California is tightening faster than Greece. State workers have seen a 14pc fall in earnings this year due to forced furloughs. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger is cutting pay for 200,000 state workers to the minimum wage of $7.25 an hour to cover his $19bn (£15bn) deficit.

Can Illinois be far behind? The state has a deficit of $12bn and is $5bn in arrears to schools, nursing homes, child care centres, and prisons. "It is getting worse every single day," said state comptroller Daniel Hynes. "We are not paying bills for absolutely essential services. That is obscene."
California and Illinois have been under the iron fist of Democrats for decades. Fittingly, they lead the nose-dive to hell.
Roughly a million Americans have dropped out of the jobs market altogether over the past two months. That is the only reason why the headline unemployment rate is not exploding to a post-war high.

Let us be honest. The US is still trapped in depression a full 18 months into zero interest rates, quantitative easing (QE), and fiscal stimulus that has pushed the budget deficit above 10pc of GDP.

The share of the US working-age population with jobs in June actually fell from 58.7pc to 58.5pc. This is the real stress indicator. The ratio was 63pc three years ago. Eight million jobs have been lost.
There's no indication this is turning around, despite the thin smile Obama puts out when asked how the economy is doing. Sorry, he has no clue; he can't fix it.
The average time needed to find a job has risen to a record 35.2 weeks. Nothing like this has been seen before in the post-war era. Jeff Weninger, of Harris Private Bank, said this compares with a peak of 21.2 weeks in the Volcker recession of the early 1980s.

"Legions of individuals have been left with stale skills, and little prospect of finding meaningful work, and benefits that are being exhausted. By our math the crop of people who are unemployed but not receiving a check amounts to 9.2m."

Republicans on Capitol Hill are filibustering a bill to extend the dole for up to 1.2m jobless facing an imminent cut-off. Dean Heller from Vermont called them "hobos". This really is starting to feel like 1932.
Filibustering because we can't afford to continue to print worthless script to further devalue our puny dollar, or keep borrowing from foreign countries to pay for our collapsing infrastructure.

No, Mr. Obama, there's no easy button. We'll have to hit the reset button. And fundamentally CHANGE our ruling Democrat's Depression.

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