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Who would be better informed than George Tenet? The head of the CIA during 9/11, appointed by Bill Clinton, carried through almost the entirity of George Bush's first term before resigning in 2004 (due in part to that famous "slam dunk" quote-misqoute on WMD's in Iraq). The book's publication is set for May 1.

Today's NYT gives us a preview of the thing, and of course George Tenet wants to clear his name, and put the "Slam Dunk" quote back into it's proper context. That is, he wants to share whatever blame history ladles out to the parties involved in the decision-making process that led to the Iraq War, the removal of Saddam Hussein, and our current "troop surge" debate:

"“It may have worked more than three years ago,” he wrote. “My fear is that sectarian violence in Iraq has taken on a life of its own and that U.S. forces are becoming more and more irrelevant to the management of that violence.”"

Those words sum up the current state of affairs succintly enough.

Even more succinct:

"Mr. Tenet expresses puzzlement that, since 2001, Al Qaeda has not sent “suicide bombers to cause chaos in a half-dozen American shopping malls on any given day.”

“I do know one thing in my gut,” he writes. “Al Qaeda is here and waiting.”"

That's the line that, so far, should draw the most interest, to average Americans. Why is Al Qaeda holding back?

Well, of course Al Qaeda can read and analyze the news, and they see plainly enough the split in America, the aftermath continuance of a long war, the two-party political debate that has increasingly split our nation into almost palpable factions (it's not like we try to keep our debates and poltical fights secret and private), and with that knowledge and just a little bit of patience, they can wait until we are at a roil and then, some carefully-planned terrorist attacks on our soil. Remember, Osama wanted to strain our economy enough to bring our collapse, not just to wound us, but to bring us down. Before 9/11, we were 'at peace' (relatively speaking, politically, internally) and we came together to confront whatever was out there.

Now, there is much more divisiveness. Blame Bush, blame both parties, blame whoever you want to, blame the War in Iraq, there's plenty of blame to go around... the end result is the same. We as a country are much less likely to 'come together' after the next attacks.

Al Quada would be foolish to strike during the lead-up to the 2008 Presidential election. They want to see a voted change of the guard, a 'new regime' so to speak, and probably want the see some 'friendlier faces' in office...Nancy, Harry, are you mindful of that? My prediction would be some kind of strike immediately before or during the January 2009 transition, before Bush leaves office and the new President takes the Oath. That would be timed to create a constitutional crisis during the transition, and to Al Qaeda, who is "here and waiting", timing is now the most important part of their planning.

They've read the Art of War, and know us now better than they did before 9/11...

"11. On the other hand, the proximity of an army causes prices to go up; and high prices cause the people's substance to be drained away.

12. When their substance is drained away, the peasantry will be afflicted by heavy exaction."

Proximity in this case is carefully-cloaked 'warriors' who can suicide with impunity. Just a few of those can cause more damage to our morale than an entire army. And, if nothing else, we've certainly earned, in Al Qaeda's simple collective mind, much exaction... from the Koran:

"47.4": So when you meet in battle those who disbelieve, then smite the necks until when you have overcome them, then make (them) prisoners, and afterwards either set them free as a favor or let them ransom (themselves) until the war terminates. That (shall be so); and if Allah had pleased He would certainly have exacted what is due from them, but that He may try some of you by means of others; and (as for) those who are slain in the way of Allah, He will by no means allow their deeds to perish.

Whether we want to acknowledge it or not, we're in a long-term struggle. Tenet knows that. Are we, a nation, ready for the next attacks, whenever they may come?

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